Pakistan faces a multifaceted array of challenges encompassing political instability, economic volatility, and social disparities. To effectively address these issues, it is crucial to analyze the facts and figures that underpin each challenge and formulate a holistic approach towards sustainable development.
Political Instability: An Examination of Governance Metrics
Political instability in Pakistan is evident through frequent changes in leadership and governance inefficiencies. For example, Pakistan experienced four changes in prime ministers within a span of five years from 2017 to 2022, leading to policy discontinuity and governance challenges. Comparatively, stable democracies like India and Bangladesh have seen more consistent leadership, contributing to long-term policy implementation and economic growth.
Economic Turmoil: Key Economic Indicators and Trends
Pakistan’s economy grapples with inflation, unemployment, and a mounting debt burden. Comparing economic indicators with regional counterparts provides insight into the severity of Pakistan’s economic challenges. For instance, Pakistan’s GDP growth rate, averaging around 2% in recent years, lags behind India’s growth rate of over 5% and Bangladesh’s growth rate exceeding 7%. Similarly, Pakistan’s inflation rate, averaging around 8%, is higher than both India and Bangladesh, impacting the purchasing power of citizens and hindering economic stability.
Social Problems: Assessing Poverty, Inequality, and Human Development
Social disparities, including poverty and inequality, pose significant obstacles to Pakistan’s development. Comparing poverty and inequality metrics with neighboring countries underscores the magnitude of the challenge. For instance, Pakistan’s Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) score of 39% is higher than India’s score of 27% and Bangladesh’s score of 22%. Additionally, Pakistan’s Gini coefficient, indicating income inequality, is higher than both India and Bangladesh, highlighting disparities in income distribution.
A Holistic Approach: Integrating Policy Responses
Addressing Pakistan’s interconnected challenges necessitates a comprehensive approach that integrates political, economic, and social policies. Drawing lessons from successful policy interventions in other countries can inform effective strategies.
• Political Stability: Strengthening Democratic Institutions and Rule of Law
Investments in democratic institutions, such as electoral reforms and judicial independence, are essential for fostering political stability. For instance, Indonesia’s successful transition to democracy following the fall of Suharto’s regime demonstrates the importance of institutional reforms in ensuring political stability and democratic consolidation.
• Economic Resilience: Structural Reforms and Investment Promotion
Structural reforms aimed at improving the business environment and attracting investment are vital for economic resilience. For example, China’s economic reforms under Deng Xiaoping in the late 20th century led to unprecedented economic growth and poverty reduction, demonstrating the transformative impact of pro-market policies.
• Social Empowerment: Targeted Interventions for Poverty Alleviation and Social Inclusion Targeted interventions, such as conditional cash transfer programs and skills development initiatives, can alleviate poverty and promote social inclusion. Brazil’s Bolsa Familia program, which provides cash transfers to poor families conditional on children attending school and receiving healthcare, has been successful in reducing poverty and inequality, serving as a model for social empowerment initiatives.
Conclusion: Toward a Sustainable and Inclusive Future
Navigating Pakistan’s interconnected challenges requires a concerted effort to address political instability, economic turmoil, and social problems simultaneously. By leveraging comparative analysis and drawing lessons from successful policy interventions, Pakistan can overcome its challenges and pave the way for a more sustainable and inclusive future for all its citizens.
In the realm of global economics, the “blue economy” stands as a beacon of promise, encapsulating the vast potential of sustainable ocean-based industries. Yet, amidst this promise lies a formidable challenge: the looming specter of climate change. As the Earth’s climate continues to evolve, the blue economy faces unprecedented threats that jeopardize its viability and resilience. To secure the future of this vital economic sector, proactive measures must be undertaken to protect against the adverse effects of climate change.
At its core, the blue economy encompasses a wide array of maritime activities, ranging from fisheries and aquaculture to tourism and renewable energy. These industries not only provide livelihoods for millions but also offer invaluable ecosystem services and resources. However, the interconnectedness between the health of the ocean and climate stability cannot be overstated. Rising sea levels, ocean acidification, and extreme weather events are just a few manifestations of climate change that pose existential threats to the blue economy.
One of the primary concerns is the impact of climate change on marine biodiversity and ecosystems. Coral reefs, often referred to as the “rainforests of the sea,” are under siege from warming waters and ocean acidification. These vital ecosystems not only support a quarter of all marine species but also provide coastal protection and sustenance for countless communities. As coral reefs decline, the ripple effects are felt throughout the entire blue economy, from diminished fish stocks to decreased tourism revenue.
Furthermore, the intensification of extreme weather events, such as hurricanes and typhoons, poses significant risks to coastal infrastructure and economies. Coastal communities, many of which rely heavily on fishing and tourism, are particularly vulnerable to the destructive power of these storms. The economic toll of rebuilding and recovery can be staggering, further exacerbating existing socio-economic disparities.
In the face of these challenges, proactive adaptation and mitigation strategies are imperative to safeguard the blue economy. Embracing sustainable practices that reduce greenhouse gas emissions and promote ecosystem resilience is paramount. Investments in renewable energy sources, such as offshore wind and wave energy, not only mitigate climate change but also diversify economic opportunities within the blue economy.
Moreover, enhancing marine conservation efforts and establishing marine protected areas (MPAs) can help preserve critical habitats and biodiversity hotspots. By safeguarding key ecosystems, such as coral reefs and mangroves, we not only bolster the resilience of the blue economy but also ensure the long-term sustainability of marine resources.
In addition to conservation measures, enhancing the resilience of coastal communities through climate-smart infrastructure and disaster preparedness is essential. This includes the implementation of nature-based solutions, such as restoring coastal wetlands and mangrove forests, which act as natural buffers against storm surges and erosion.
Furthermore, fostering international cooperation and collaboration is essential in addressing the transboundary nature of climate change and its impacts on the blue economy. By sharing knowledge, technology, and resources, nations can collectively tackle the challenges posed by climate change and chart a course towards a more sustainable future.
In conclusion, the blue economy stands at a critical juncture, poised between promise and peril. While the impacts of climate change pose formidable challenges, they also present opportunities for innovation and adaptation. By embracing sustainable practices, enhancing conservation efforts, and fostering international cooperation, we can protect and nurture the blue economy for generations to come. The time to act is now, for the health of our oceans is inextricably linked to the prosperity of our planet.
References:
1. United Nations. (2017). The Ocean Conference: Our oceans, our future: partnering for the implementation of Sustainable Development Goal 14. United Nations Publications.
2. Halpern, B. S., et al. (2015). Spatial and temporal changes in cumulative human impacts on the world’s ocean. Nature Communications, 6, 7615.
3. Hoegh-Guldberg, O., et al. (2017). Reviving the Ocean Economy: The Case for Action—2015. WWF International.
4. United Nations Development Programme. (2020). Protecting Blue Economy: Sustainable Financing for Marine and Coastal Resources Management. United Nations Development Programme.
India and Pakistan, the two arch rivals of South Asia have been in an action-reaction cycle since 1998 when both countries acquired nuclear power. In recent times, the arms race has been growing concerning the missile race in South Asia which causing a stabilizing-destabilizing dilemma in the region. Recently, the tests of Agni-Prime and Ababeel are making the world curious about what will be next for these countries, will these advancements in missile technology lead the countries towards confidence-building measures or more efficient technology? Will CBMs be enough for them or disarmament regimes should be followed?
These technologies, which are cost effective for both countries and highlight their lesser attention to the non-traditional security challenges that constitute another area of concern, represent a large proportion of defence budgets.
Pakistan, the smaller and less developed state, has long considered India to be its main security threat. However, India considers Pakistan to be a security threat as well. Despite this, India’s aspirations to become a significant regional and international force also influence its security and foreign policy. In addition to creating missiles that can travel over all of Pakistan, India is also constructing intercontinental ballistic missiles that could travel as far as certain regions of China. While India’s ballistic missile program is also motivated by its aspirations to become a great power, Pakistan’s missile program focuses entirely on India and intends to prevent any aggression from that country.
The missile and nuclear programs of India and Pakistan reflect an action-reaction cycle that poses a threat to regional peace and security. Systems such as India’s missile defence are particularly disruptive to regional strategic stability and nuclear deterrence. India’s theoretical invulnerability to a ballistic missile attack is compromised by the deployment of a BMD, putting into question Pakistan’s nuclear deterrence. Additionally, it would urge India to pursue a first-strike strategy in which it would use its BMD to neutralize the majority of Pakistan’s nuclear forces and counter any remaining retaliation. From a Pakistani standpoint, the TNW, Nasr, is stabilizing for deterrence. However, if India hadn’t adopted CSD, the necessity for developing Nasr would not have emerged. Pakistan faces a stabilization-destabilization dilemma as a result of its pursuit of TNW. The actual use and deployment of the weapons in combat is destabilizing, even though Pakistan may find stability in the demonstration of TNW capability.” Pre-emption, unintentional use, and command-and-control problems are dangers associated with military deployment that destabilize deterrence.
The dual nature of the missiles is another aspect contributing to instability in South Asia. The missiles of both India and Pakistan can carry both conventional and nuclear warheads. As a result, the opponent remains in doubt, which further complicates communication. The enemy is unable to determine whether the missiles being assembled for launch are conventional or nuclear. This can cause the enemy, such as India, to avoid taking chances like invading Pakistan, stepping over the Line of Control, or engaging in other violent operations. It might also result in a different scenario where an enemy launches a pre-emptive attack to destroy the enemy’s nuclear assets because it believes the other side is getting ready to unleash a nuclear weapon.
The deployment of nuclear weapons by New Delhi in the Indian Ocean is the other destabilizing factor. India now has a second strike capability which shifts the odds in its favour due to its advanced naval nuclear and missile capabilities. Pakistan has been obliged to create its second strike capability due to this risk. The missile race has now only reached the Indian Ocean as a result of this. Developing and deploying underwater nuclear assets raises several risks, including those of escalation, misinterpretation, and accidental or unauthorized use. Underwater deterrents are likely to intensify instability in this region of South Asia. The most significant problem is one of command and control, which has the potential to compromise deterrence. This essentially means that, at sea, the weapons need to be in a ready-to-use state but have the increased challenge to prevent accidental use. At sea, communication with civilian leadership cannot always be certain, increasing the likelihood of unauthorized launch in times of crisis.
Risk Reduction
Pakistan and India must collaborate on a Strategic Restraint Regime (SRR). Pakistan has offered numerous suggestions for SSR over the years, one of which is the creation of a WMD-free system. Following the 1998 nuclear tests, Pakistan offered a new proposal for an SSR that had three key components: nuclear restraint to maintain deterrence, conventional balance, and conflict resolution. India rejected it, and Pakistan later suggested a similar regime in 2016, only to have it rejected once more. The two nations require some sort of crisis management system.
There are certain confidence-building measures (CBMs) in place between Pakistan and India; these must be strengthened. A few of the CBMs in existence include an agreement to pre-notify ballistic missile launches and a regular exchange of names of each country’s nuclear installations along with an agreement to avoid attacking them. A Ballistic Missile Treaty for South Asia that places restrictions on the development and use of missile defence systems is one possible CBM that the two nations can discuss. Other potential CBMs include an agreement to prevent incidents at sea, advance notification of cruise missile tests, and specific steps for negotiating this treaty. Additionally, the two nations must have some CBMs to prevent unintentional launches as they are fielding nuclear deterrents at sea.
Conclusion
India’s growing missile inventory and its investment in the defence system for power projection, regional competition against China and Pakistan, and security concerns are harming strategic stability and deterrence instead of stabilizing the region. The risk reduction measurement and adaptation of confidence-building measures are extremely necessary to lessen the risk of nuclear war in South Asia. India has built missiles with the same capabilities and ranges as the original five nuclear states which is quite threatening for South Asia as well as for western states. According to analysts both India and Pakistan are more prone to the accidental use of nuclear weapons so they must get engaged and cooperate to take necessary measures to reduce nuclear arsenals for the stability of the region.
References
Dhanda, S. (2011). Dangers of Missile Race in South Asia: an India-Pakistan Perspective. International Affairs and Global Strategy, 2(4), 1-8.
Hussain, S. R. (2004). Missile Race in South Asia: The Way Forward. South Asian Survey, 11(2), 273-286.
Jalil, G. Y. (2020). Missile Race in South Asia. Strategic Studies, 40(1), 39-57.
The prophet Muhammad established the Islamic world order, and the caliphate leaders solidified it. Everything started with the first migration, and later on, the world saw the rise of multilateralism. when the prophet (SAW) first proposed the idea of treaties. Even though European writers claimed that the concept of multilateralism originated in the West, it had an Islamic roots. With the aid of treaties, Islam attempted to achieve peace with its adversaries. Moreover, Hazrat Usman’s reign saw the growth of the Islamic empire.
For many years, the Muslim empire flourished under the caliphate regime. However, the Ottomans took control of the Muslim world following the fall of the Abbasid monarchy. The first global war’s devastation caused the Ottomans to fall, ending the Muslim world order. Although the contemporary world order is Western, if we talk about the economy and political models but still Muslim countries are relevant due to their oil reserves. In a multipolar world Muslim countries are playing a crucial role in the decision-making of the world since they shifted their foreign policy from ideology to realpolitik.
Historical Perspective:
1st A.H-622 A.D In 622 A.D., the Holy Prophet Muhammad (SAW) and his followers migrated from Makkah to Madinah. This migration also termed “Hijrah” was a significant turning point in the history of Islam, that led to the establishment of a new community based on Islamic Principles. There are many examples of social cohesion and unity in Islamic history and the Charter of Madinah was one of them that led to the growth of the Muslim community.
Rise of Internationalism The Charter of Madina leads to the rise of internationalism as it provides the basis for a city-state between the Muslims and the Jews. Because of the sense of inclusivity and cooperation spirit of internationalism extended beyond the boundary of Madinah. Holy prophet Hazrat Muhammad (SAW) engaged in diplomatic affairs and settled treaties with neighboring tribes. Principles and aims of the Islamic state like Conflict Resolution, peaceful co-existence, principles of justice, equality, and respect for diversity continue to influence the concept of Internationalism within the Muslim World. Islam divided the world into three parts I.e. i. Daruslama ii. Dar al-Sulh iii. Dar al Harb Daruslama (abodes of Islam), areas where Islamic Laws prevail. These were Muslim Majority areas and also governed by Muslims. Second, Dar-al-sulh (Treaty Relationship) was the region where Muslims and non-Muslims co-exist under a treaty or agreement and where both respect the treaty. Third, Dar-Al-Hrab (Abode of War) represents those regions ruled by Non-Muslims. Muslims opted defensive rather than an offensive strategy in these areas followed by No First Attack.
Treaty of Hira: It was the first treaty signed with the Christian tribe of Banu Bakar during the time of Hazrat Abu Bakar, the first Caliphate of Islam. This treaty was aimed at peace and cooperation between Muslims and Christians and also included the provisions of Mutual defense and non-aggression. The impact it casts on the Islamic world order was significant because it emphasizes the importance of diplomacy, tolerance, and respect for religious diversity. This approach helped in the expansion of Islam and the establishment of a broader Islamic world order.
Caliphate of Hazrat Usman (R.A) 633-644 A.D Under the caliphate of Hazrat Usman, the Islamic empire expanded. Byzantine, Pursia, and Hijaz collectively formed the first Muslim empire that was Multi-linguistic, Multi-cultural, and Multi-religious. The central system was based on Islamic principles and it provides liberty to all. Administrative and judicial reforms were also established to strengthen the governance of the Islamic state. Embassies were also created for strong diplomatic ties, Rules for foreigners were also laid down that were inspired by Islamic principles of Justice, Fairness, and hospitality.
644-1917 A.D This period witnessed significant changes and developments. It begins with the expansion of the Islamic empire under Rashidun, Umayyad, and Abbasid caliphates leading towards the Islamic golden age. Islamic golden age dates from the 8th century to the 14th century, traditionally understood to have begun during the rule of Abbasids. It was the point in Islamic history where scholarship thrived, Muslims all around the world, including poets, artists, philosophers, traders, and scholars all contributed to the economic, scientific, and technological advancements.
Decline of Abbasids and Rise of Ottomans:
Abbasid empire disintegrated because the Muslim world faced internal conflicts, political divisions, and regional fragmentations led by the rise of new empires ruled by the Turks. The Ottomans and Safavids reshaped the political landscape of the Muslim World. Palestine witnessed its longest year of peace during 401 years of Ottoman rule from 1516 to the dawn of the British mandate in 1917. there were special arrangements made by Ottomans regarding land in Palestine that are as follows:
“ whosoever would buy and sell the territory in Palestine shall have to keep the Ottoman authority as the party of the Contract” Ottomans were the guaranteers to keep the authority neutral. Khalifa Abdul Hamid (1876-1909), the last Sultan of the Ottoman Empire faced numerous challenges. He oversaw the Fall of Ottomans with territorial losses, and internal unrest, and also encountered pressure from Europeans. He handed over all the deeds and property record documents of Palestine to Shah Faisal of Iraq. He then handed over the documents to Shah Abdullah senior of Jordan. In the end, these property records were handed to the British mandate as a gift by Shah Abdullah of Jordan.
Balfour Declaration (1917):
It was a public statement issued by the British Government in 1917, and it was based on support for the formation of the “National Home for the Jewish people in Palestine”. This declaration turned the Zionist aim of creating a Jewish state in Palestine into reality. It is considered as the most controversial and contested document in the modern history of the Arab World. Tensions and conflicts sparked between Jewish and Arab communities which ultimately led to the fall of the Muslim world order with the establishment of an Independent Jewish state on 14th May 1948.
Principle Of Islamic World Order:
The principle of Islamic world order was based on the Qur’an and Shariah. Shariah is the Islamic legal framework derived from the Qur’an and it includes a wide range of aspects like Family Law, Criminal Law, and economic principles. Qur’an and Shariah played a significant role in shaping the Islamic world order providing a moral and legal framework for Muslims around the world.
Contemporary World Order and Muslim countries
The Islamic world, once a flag-bearer of knowledge, thought, and civilization, has in recent centuries relapsed into weakness. Contemporary Muslim world order is complex and multifaceted. There is no single entity that is leading the Muslim world order. Organizations like OIC play a significant role in strengthening and promoting cooperation among Muslim nations. These regional and international organizations can highlight issues affecting Muslims globally, like the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. This can create a sense of shared experience and potentially influence international politics.
The OIC advocates for the rights of Muslims facing persecution or discrimination around the globe. This includes socio-economic and socio-cultural issues. The OIC serves as a platform for Muslim-majority countries to coordinate efforts, advocate for their interests, and promote development within the Muslim world. While a singular Muslim world order might be complex due to internal diversity, the OIC contributes to a sense of global Muslim connection and collective action.
In the current scenario, even though the modern world order is shifting towards multipolarity, Islamic nations nonetheless play a significant role in this new global structure. Although Islamic countries like the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, have increased their diplomatic influence in recent years. Muslim nations may contribute to a multipolar world, in my opinion, since they follow the pragmatist model and don’t put all of their eggs in one basket.
For example, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia maintains strong strategic ties with both the United States and the United Kingdom and neighbors to the Eastern world. However, Turkey, a Muslim country, is attempting to rekindle its power. Under the United Nations auspices, Turkey’s Black Sea Port handles grain deals. Moreover, Turkey is a member of NATO, a Western defense alliance through which she blocked the membership of Finland and Sweden so one can conclude that Islamic countries are still playing a crucial role in the comity of nations.
Threats to the Contemporary Muslim World:
Today, the Muslim World, as a whole, faces several challenges as evidenced by the serious problems that beset individual Muslim countries. There are internal as well as external threats and challenges faced by Muslim countries. Internal threats include the rise of sectarian conflicts I.e. conflicts between Sunni and Shia Muslims, political instability (struggle with authoritarian governments, corruption, and weak institutions), and economic challenges (Poverty, unemployment), that can lead to social unrest and make some people more susceptible to radicalization. External challenges include Islamophobia, Extremism, the rise of non-state actors, Foreign intervention, and also non-traditional security challenges i.e. Climate change. Another important challenge is the Rise of Social media. Terrorist organizations are using social media platforms to spread their propaganda, promoting psychological warfare.
Conclusion:
The period of Prophet Muhammad (SAW) and the caliphate saw the global flourishing of Muslim ideals, standards, and principles. The Ottoman Empire expanded its influence over Islamic principles following the fall of the Abbasid Empire. The collapse of the Ottoman Empire and the World Wars rendered Muslim nations incapable, which contributed to the catastrophe of Palestine—a land of great religious significance to Muslims. In the contemporary Muslim world, no single state is leading the Muslim nations but regional organizations are playing an important role by providing a platform for the collaborations between the Muslim countries.
Climate change – an undeniable reality of the 21 century, is one of the heinous and existential threats, from which no one can escape or deny, to our planet earth. Weather changing and unexpected natural disasters are the practical example of climate change, financially speaking, and the flood of 2022 due to climate change shrieked Pakistan’s economy by 30 billion US dollar. Politically speaking, many International law experts, as well as academia are of the view that the rise in the sea level, again due to climate change might lead to the extinction of states in the near future. For instance, the vulnerability of Maldives, as an island, in the Indian Ocean, is clear manifestation of the above mentioned scholarly view. From a humanitarian lens, the displacement of millions of people including women and children is an irreparable damage to humanity.
Comparatively, developing countries for example Pakistan, are more exposed to climate change. The flooding of 2022 converted approximately, 17,000 schools only in the province of Sindh into rubble. The problem with developing or weak states are their ill preparation vis-a-via torrential rains and so on. Developed economies are more resilient in this regard. Captivatingly, Pakistan contributes less than 0.5% in GHG. But, at the same time, unfortunately Pakistan is in the list of top 5 most affected countries due to climate changing is destroy the ecosystem.
Pakistan, as well as many other developing countries are staunch advocates of climate justice. A campaign which was launched by developed as well as developing countries to showcase their grievances and reservation vis-a-vis climate change at various International fora, particularly at the United Nations. Actions to control the disastrous repercussions of climate change as compared to the horrific consequences caused by climate change is just tip of the ice berg. The annual submit of Cop (conference of parties) is more about just taking group photos, rather than any practical and productive actions to alleviate the menace of climate change.
The materialization of a promised initiative in terms of loss and damage fund remains elusive. Such an apathy on the part of developed countries as well as responsible stakeholders might lead to the generation of a sense of helplessness in the climate-hitted nations. With the enhancement of apathy and reluctance on the part of responsible states, (US, China, UK, France, Etc.) crises hatted-countries left with few options. Besides the zero-sum game when it comes to the international system, patriarchal and misogynist tendencies further contributed to the wounded of already marginalized and subjugated women in our societies.
Many reports unveiled that women remain the most vulnerable and affected segment of our society due to climate change. Physically as well as mentally torture further worsen the scenarios and make it difficult for women to cope with the inhuman effect of climate change. The devastating years of 2022-2023 due to climate change, coupled with an already fragile state of our economy, lifted the authorities with zero options, but left the all vulnerable and climate-hatted people, especially the women at the mercy of God.
Assistance of international donners, Islamabad will be unable to hear the concern of women. Their (women) dependence nature further dwindled their ability, reports also uncover suicidal tendencies in women, especially at the time of crises like flooding, torrential rains as well as mass exodus. Last year, flooding left more than 650,000 pregnant Pakistani women at the mercy of God. And they were not able to access to healthcare system.
The newly born babies, which grow up in such a heinous situation will obviously face diseases like malnutrition and so on. Vegetables & fruits, these unstable children will then become a liability rather than an asset for the country, Due to their mental and physical illness they will not contribute enough to the country’s development. Last year’s flooding or catastrophic flooding I would say, displaced more than 33 millions of people. Unfortunately, 80% of the above mentioned figure (33 million) were women.
Majority of them were not in a position to relocate and rebuilt or re-establish their lives. Women in Pakistan are more or less equivalent to that of men (49-51%) to negate them will prove disastrous for Pakistan’s future, and it will be a historical blunder and our part, which will not only affect our economy, but also our politics, society, and International or world standing. Not a single state can make any progress if it excludes half of its assets from the man powers. If we return from a state of pessimism as we already manifested in terms of fact and figures, there is still a layer of hope too.
To mitigate the unbearable results of climate change, the government of Pakistan has partnered with international union for conservation of nature and other concerned organizations, as well as competent authority to a national climate change gender action plan. Despite collaboration with global actors, gender inequality still persists which is a matter of grave concerns. The issue of immense influence of climate change on women as compared to their male partner, which was also highlighted by Pakistan’s former climate minister SherryRahman.. It was an itself a good reflection that women are leading such an imperative and sensitive ministry.
The ministry for climate change was supervised to ensure the implementations of provisions derived from a much collaborated effort by Pakistan coupled with international organizations as well as other stakeholders .The above mentioned gender responsive action plan was based on four comprehensive themes: capacity building, policies and management mechanism, gender balance, and adaptation and mitigation.
The comprehensive nature of above mentioned theme is a clear manifestation of Pakistan’s utmost willingness and seriousness vis-a-vis climate change. To effectively deal with climate change, women empowerment is inevitable. A notion reaffirms by global leaders at the Paris agreement in 2015. However, when it comes to climate change governance, Pakistan’s main strategy is adaptation measures which are locally driven initiatives where women can play an instrumental role. In rural areas of Pakistan women also working in farming and if government and international bodies help and organize such women to control climate change they can play a Vital role in this regard, For the fulfillment of their duties, women must be equipped with adequate knowledge and skills related to climate change governance. Besides governmental responsibilities vis-a-vis womenempowerment, we as an individual (as a father, as a husband, as a brother) also have duties in this regard. Society is the base or fundamental of our state. The negation of patriarchal and misogynistic thoughts, and subsequently the acceptance of a full and viable potential of women is the need of an hour.
National or domestic anti-climate change regime will only prove viable, if it is backed by International assistance. Parties to the UNFCCC,(both developed and developing) have the potential and capabilities to mitigate the heinous and terrible effects of climate change by introducing more viable and resilient regimes and role,co2 tax.(special tax). But unfortunately they lack will. Developed economies, especially the US, China, and to some extent India are developing or boosting their economies at the expense of weak states. The world’s two largest polluters are the US and China, contributing more than 50% to the GHG, but captivatingly when it comes to assistance for the climate-hatted countries, they are far away from individuals donners like Cristiano Ronaldo and Messi.
It is the responsibility of such developed states to work and spend budget to control climate change in all over the world. The ongoing Cop-28 summit must ensure the materialization of loss and damage fund. Once such funds are dispatched for countries like Pakistan, it will heel on climate,-hatted wounds. It would be the need an hour that such foreign assistance must be utilized by Pakistan at their utmost seriousness and to preserve the trust of the international community. As every problem creates an opportunity, according to the former foreign minister of Pakistan, Bilawal Bhutoo Zardari.
It is an opportunity for Pakistan to make all devastated roads, railways, hospitals, schools as more resilience as possible. The more we indulge in eco-friendly activities, it is certain, nature will never ever betrayed us. More importantly, we should not limits our gender respective action plan to climate related aspect and drive we should dragged this gender equality initiative beyond climate mitigation governance. We are social animals and can live healthy life only in natural existence ,we work on skill base rather than gender base .The more we accept diversity, the more we will be in a positions to cope with various existential problems. We should engulf diversity, rather than to demarcate the society based on Gender, Linguistic, Race, and Creed and so on.
Toconclude, indeed something is better than nothing, but still, Pakistan’s response in this regard is unsatisfactory. We should do more to rescue our vulnerable people, especially the most marginalized segment of our society (women). We should do, whatever is required in collaboration with the international community to really fulfill the spirit and responsibility of being a state.
This research paper highlights the challenges and opportunitiesfor the Iranian Post-Revolutionary Foreign Policy (1979 onwards) directed towards Afghanistan in the light of various reasons and causes, including the historical background of Iranian foreign policy towards Afghanistan from 1979 till 1992, the details of the challenges and opportunities Iran encountered from 1992 till 2013, along with their potential implications and outcomes; cross-border trafficking, insecurities, conflicts and disagreements, and how they assisted in reshaping of contemporary foreign policy of Iran. The section contemporary foreign policy of Iran towards Afghanistan will cover the major challenges and opportunities; immigration of Afghan refugees, water crisis, drug trafficking and presence of the US in the region, and their influence on both state’s policies and strategies
The main objective behind carrying out this research is to study, understand, analyze and highlight the foreign policy objectives of Iran towards Afghanistan and development of an understanding pertaining to how the policies originated and evolved after Iranian Revolution of 1979 as well as analyzing the direction of their journey, ultimately influencing Iran and Afghanistan. In the end of this research paper, conclusion for better understanding is given. Research question is answered concisely in the best possible ways to help analyze the problem deeply and efficiently. This paper will also help the reader to deeply analyze the scenarios and then offers critical thinking about their aspects and outcomes. Authentic sources are used for research.
Keywords:
The Challenges and Opportunities, Iranian Foreign Policy, Contemporary Foreign Policy of Iran towards Afghanistan, Immigration of Afghan Refugees, Water Crisis, Drug Trafficking and Presence of the US in Middle East.
Research Methodology:
This research used the literature review method by analyzing, comparing and contrasting arguments using related sources. Quantitative method of research is used while conducting this research. Secondary sources are used such as the books, journal articles, research reports, the internet and the informative media. Some assistance from tertiary sources like documentaries and opinions, is taken while carrying out the research.
Limits of the Research:
This research is concerned with the post-revolutionary foreign policy of Iran towards Afghanistan. It’s not necessarily confined to a specific time frame; but mainly during and after 1979. However, it is confined to Iran and Afghanistan in the geopolitical and geostrategic sense.
INTRODUCTION
Islamic Republic of Iran is a Middle Eastern State sharing 921 km long border with Afghanistan in East (which is a landlocked state), has Caspian Sea in the North and Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman in the South. Afghanistan is located at a geographically important position as it’s a gateway towards Central Asia and South Asia linking with Middle East and Europe. Iran is about 2.5 times greater in size than Afghanistan. Both states have political, cultural and ethnic diversities. Though both are Muslim majority states; Iran is Shiite majority whereas Afghanistan inhabits Sunni Muslims. Iran’s political system includes theocracy having policies based on the Islam, political freedom and presidential democracy. Being a hybrid regime, the theocratic political system has the representative participation which changes according to social and political dynamics with the passage of time.
However, the major shift in Iran’s political system and foreign policy occurred during Iranian revolution in 1979. Before this revolution, Iran was constitutional monarchy merged with parliamentary system. Afghanistan is a presidential democratic state. There is discord among government of the state as the collapse of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan took place due to fall of Kabul to Taliban on August 15, 2021. Now, they are controlling the whole state. Diplomatic and strategic relations between both states were friendly from independence of Afghanistan in 1919 till 1979. But, both states visualized escalated constraints between them in the post-revolutionary era. The socio-economic order along with political order was also changed. Iran has visualized escalated constraints in social, economic and political prospects along with its foreign policy in the post-revolutionary era.
Research Question:
What were the challenges and opportunities for Iranian foreign policy towards Afghanistan in post-revolutionary period?
HISTORICAL BACKGROUND
Much analysis is done by eminent political scientists and researchers on Iran’s foreign policy. But the case study here is the Iranian foreign policy directed towards Afghanistan in post–revolutionary period. In post–revolutionary era, Khomeini’s ideology was prioritized along with Islamic solidarity and regional changes in foreign policy towards Afghanistan for almost 10 years. In 2006, Vali R. Nasr in his book “The Shia Revival” advocated that,
“Khomeini used the emotional power of Shia lore and imagery not only to help him seize control of Iran but to lay claim to Shiism’s very soul”.[1]
[1] Vali R. Nasr, “The Shia Revival”, 2006, pp. 106.
He also said that “Khomeini made Islamic fundamentalism a political force that would change Muslim politics from Morocco to Malaysia”. Khomeini mixed ideology with the theology of the revolution to consolidate his power. After revolution, the major principle of Iranian foreign policy was export of revolution.
During the same year (1979), Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan. Budgetary constraints curbed the formulation of a comprehensive strategy towards Afghanistan.[1] Iran has opened its doors to more than 2.5 million Afghan refugees since 1979, and employment to more than 1.5 million undocumented migrant workers whose remittances have supported communities across Afghanistan.[2] During Hashemi Rafsanjani’s Presidency, economy grew for first 3 years (1989-
[1] Rashid, A., Taliban: Islam, Oil and the New Great Game in Central Asia (IB Tauris: London, 2000), p. 199.
[2] Koepke, B., ‘The situation of Afghans in the Islamic Republic of Iran nine years after the overthrow of the Taliban Regime in Afghanistan’, editions J. Calabrese and J.-L. Marret, Transatlantic Cooperation on Protracted Displacement: Urgent Need and Unique Opportunity (Middle East Institute Press: Washington, DC, 2012), pp. 57–69; and American Institute of Afghanistan Studies and the Hollings Center for International Dialogue, ‘Afghanistan’s other neighbors: Iran, Central Asia, and China’, Report of Conference in Istanbul, 24–26 July 2008, p. 6.
1992) but afterwards, economic downfall occurred due to mismanagement of currency and decline in oil prices. Despite the development in different social, political, economic and cultural sectors; the economic sector remained in bad terms. Also, Iran faced refugee issue at that time. In 1991-1992, refugee crisis reached at peak, more than 3 million Afghan refugees reached Iran.[1]
[1] Koepke, B., ‘The situation of Afghans in the Islamic Republic of Iran nine years after the overthrow of the Taliban Regime in Afghanistan’, editions J. Calabrese and J.-L. Marret, Transatlantic Cooperation on Protracted Displacement: Urgent Need and Unique Opportunity (Middle East Institute Press: Washington, DC, 2012), pp. 57–69.
Iran also supported Shi’ite communities residing in Afghanistan. During early 1980s, in central highlands that embraced Khomeinist Islamism, only Shi’ite groups there received financial and logistical support. This resulted into clash within Shi’ite sections in Afghanistan.[1] During President Rafsanjani’s regime, Iran adopted more cohesive policy supporting the establishment of a multiethnic government in Afghanistan, including representatives of both Shi’ite and Sunni sects. In 1988-89, after the withdrawal of Soviet troops, the communist regime of Afghans imploded.[2]Foreign policy of Iran towards Afghanistan was influenced for most of the time by “Sanctions imposed on Iran due to Hostage Crisis and the Nuclear Program, and Soviet invasion of Afghanistan”.
[1] Ibrahimi, N., The Failure of a Clerical Proto-State: Hazarajat, 1979–1984, Crisis States Research Centre (CSRC) Working Paper no. 6 (CSRC: London, June 2006), p. 4.
[2] Olesen, A., Islam and Politics in Afghanistan (Curzon Press: London, 1995), p. 291.
THE CHALLENGES & OPPORTUNITIES FROM 1992 TILL 2013
Burhanuddin Rabbaniremained the President of Afghanistan from 1992 to 2001. During his regime, civil war started from 1992 till 1996 which was backed by Iran mainly and resulted into emergence of Taliban taking control in 1996.[1] Iran engaged militarily and politically with Shi’ite Islamist groups and anti-Taliban United Front; Northern Alliance. Taliban’s expansion with anti-Shia agenda resulted into Iran’s more convergence towards Afghanistan, backing anti-Taliban resistance groups and its standing for peace through political dialogue.[2]
[1] Maley, W., The Afghanistan Wars, 2nd edition (Palgrave Macmillan: New York, 2009), p. 203–204.
[2] Ahady, A.U.H., ‘Saudi Arabia, Iran and the conflict in Afghanistan’, p. 126.
Iran had anti-US policy and wanted an Islamist-ruled regime in Afghanistan. Eventually, Hekmatyar (a critique of US) of Hezb-e-Islami was seemed to Iran its ally. Iran co-operated with Wahdat and wanted it to approach Hezb-e-Islami. In 1995, Jamiat attacked sectors of Wahdat in Kabul. Wahdat went to Taliban for assistance. Despite this, a leader of Wahdat’s splinter group; Muhammad Akbari (a Shia Qizilbash Commander, converged apparently with Wahdat forces of Mazari), attacked Taliban. They interpreted it as a betrayal by Wahdat and killed Mazari in the same month. This ended dialogue between both the states. Consequently, Iran supported all anti-Taliban groups. Here, emerged the challenge of “threat to national security of Iran” by Taliban. This proved true when on August 8, 1998, Taliban killed a journalist and eight diplomats in Mazar-e-Sharif at Iranian consulate. For vengeance, Iran was confused how to retaliate, whether with
[1] Maley, W., The Afghanistan Wars, 2nd edition (Palgrave Macmillan: New York, 2009), p. 203–204.
[1] Ahady, A.U.H., ‘Saudi Arabia, Iran and the conflict in Afghanistan’, p. 126.
military intervention or not. Some senior officials feared the threat to Iranian national interest by the military intervention, ultimately by radical Sunni Islamists aligned with Taliban.
Iranian President Muhammad Khatami (1997-2005) adopted moderate approach. In October 1998, he located 200,000 soldiers in Eastern border of Iran for showing the force.[1]On the other hand, in Kandahar, Taliban kidnapped several Iranians. This offered Iranian officials an opportunity for directly engaging at the diplomatic level with senior Taliban.[2]During December 1997, in Esfahan, the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs invited resistance envoys of Afghanistan at a conference.[3] Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal Kharazzi emphasized that Afghanistan should be prioritized in political arena. In Tehran, Iranian President Khatami focused on negotiations and peace in Afghanistan during the Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC) Summit.[4] During July 1999, the Tashkent Declaration banned military aid and arm supplies to Afghanistan but anti-Taliban opposition was supplied arms by Iran; meanwhile also urging diplomatic solution to the crisis.
[1] Rashid, A., “Taliban: Islam, Oil and the New Great Game in Central Asia” (IB Tauris: London, 2000), p. 197.
[2] “Iran in direct contact with Taliban over kidnapped diplomats”, Agence France-Presse, 23 Aug. 1998; Rashid, A., Taliban: Islam, Oil and the New Great Game in Central Asia (IB Tauris: London, 2000), pg. 75.
[3] “Afghanistan’s peace conference in Esfahan”, Seraj, vol. 4, no. 14–31 (1376 [1–3 Dec. 1997]), pp. 133–50 (in Farsi).
[4] Kamalian, H. (ed.), Documents of the Eighth Islamic Summit (Session of Dignity, Dialogue Participation), 9–11 December 1997 (Office of the Chairman of the Eighth Islamic Summit: Tehran, 2000).
Figure 4: Iranian President Muhammad Khatami (1997-2005)
Foreign Policy of Iran became more pragmatic towards Afghanistan (it intensified political solution to the conflict), by late 1990s. During the US invasion of Iraq, Iran declared neutrality, but US officials believed that it is attempting to usurp Iraq as the region’s dominating force. Sanctions on Iran escalated during Administrations of US President George H.W. Bush and Bill
[1] Rashid, A., “Taliban: Islam, Oil and the New Great Game in Central Asia” (IB Tauris: London, 2000), p. 197.
[1] “Iran in direct contact with Taliban over kidnapped diplomats”, Agence France-Presse, 23 Aug. 1998; Rashid, A., Taliban: Islam, Oil and the New Great Game in Central Asia (IB Tauris: London, 2000), pg. 75.
[1] “Afghanistan’s peace conference in Esfahan”, Seraj, vol. 4, no. 14–31 (1376 [1–3 Dec. 1997]), pp. 133–50 (in Farsi).
[1] Kamalian, H. (ed.), Documents of the Eighth Islamic Summit (Session of Dignity, Dialogue Participation), 9–11 December 1997 (Office of the Chairman of the Eighth Islamic Summit: Tehran, 2000).
Clinton. In 1992, the Iran-Iraq Arms Non-Proliferation Act was passed by Congress, restricting materials that could be used to develop sophisticated weapons. In 1995, Us escalated restrictions by enforcing an oil and trade embargo. Sanctions were implemented upon Non-American corporations investing more than $20 million per year in Iran’s oil and gas sectors under the Iran and Libya Sanctions Act of 1996. The trade between Iran and Afghanistan got much affected.
From 1999 till 2001, Iran urged Afghanistan for reaching a political settlement during “Iran’s Cyprus Process”.[1] In March 2000 and onwards, US seemed unable to defeat Taliban and signaled for cooperation on Afghanistan with Iran. Iran progressively engaged in Geneva Initiative in response.[2] This showed Iran’s support for Afghanistan’s state building. In 2001, Iran cooperated with US and other international entities for development and peace building in Afghanistan. Initially in Kabul, additional foreign soldiers were deployed by UNSC’s approval: for assurance of security for reconstruction in post–civil war era.[3]
[1] Katzman K., Afghanistan: Current Issues and US Policy, Congressional Research Service (CRS) Report for Congress RL30588 (US Congress, CRS: Washington, DC, Dec 3, 2002), p. 8; and Samad, O., ‘Second Afghan peace movement calls for “coordinated Efforts”, Azadi Afghan Radio in Afghanistan News Center, Dec 2, 1999.
[2] Parker, J. W., Persian Dreams: Moscow and Tehran since the fall of the Shah (Potomac Books: Dulles, VA, 2008), p. 181.
[3] UN Security Council Resolution 1386, Dec 20, 2001.
The CIA categorized Iran as the world’s largest state sponsor of terrorism for decades, and it has used the War on Terror as a wonderful chance to weaken neighboring states and for growing its own influence to become a vital regional and global actor. Despite these accusations, following the 9/11 terrorist attacks (in 2001), Iran secretly assisted US in conflict directed against Taliban. Contrarily, the US President George W. Bush called Iran “Axis of Evil” along with North Korea and Iraq, in his State of the Union speech in 2002. He emphasized that,
“Iran relentlessly pursues (weapons of mass destruction) and exports terror while an unelected minority suppress the Iranian people’s aspirations for freedom”.
Consequently, the government of Iran got enraged and suspended secret meetings with US diplomats which aimed at apprehending Al-Qaeda operatives and defeating the Taliban. The dialogue between Iran and US were lessened and foreign policy directed towards Afghanistan became more embedded in Iran-US scenario and was dominated by hardline conservatives and clerics. Iran got golden opportunity of becoming an ambitious player in Middle East as well as in Central Asian region after withdrawal of Taliban in November 2001.The economic and political reconstruction in Afghanistan was assisted by Iranian resources. Even though Afghan President Hamid Karzai shifted his cabinet many times, influential persons having ties with government of Iran remained at senior positions.
Iran adopted constructive engagement towards Afghanistan due to escalating insurgency by Pashtuns, potential connections among Sunni insurgent groups of Afghanistan and Iranian terrorist groups; Sunni Baloch ethno-nationalist Jundullah. Iran also adopted strategy of “support for reconstruction; economic and political”. This was evident from Bonn Conference of December 2001, where Iranian officials in favor of policy of US, convinced Sunni-Tajik dominated United Front for acceptance of government with variations under Hamid Karzai. Eventually, Iran
[1] Katzman K., Afghanistan: Current Issues and US Policy, Congressional Research Service (CRS) Report for Congress RL30588 (US Congress, CRS: Washington, DC, Dec 3, 2002), p. 8; and Samad, O., ‘Second Afghan peace movement calls for “coordinated Efforts”, Azadi Afghan Radio in Afghanistan News Center, Dec 2, 1999.
[1] Parker, J. W., Persian Dreams: Moscow and Tehran since the fall of the Shah (Potomac Books: Dulles, VA, 2008), p. 181. [1] UN Security Council Resolution 1386, Dec 20, 2001.
remained victorious. The US representative “James Dobbins” emphasized that without Iranian assistance, formation of Karzai government was impossible.[1]
[1] Dobbins, J., ‘Negotiating with Iran’, Iran: Reality, Options and Consequences, Part 2, Negotiating with the Iranians: Missed Opportunities and Paths Forward, Hearing before the Subcommittee on National Security and Foreign Affairs of the Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, US House of Representatives, Nov 7, 2007 (US Government Printing Office: Washington, DC, 2009); p. 12.
The elections of 2005 were won by hardliner conservative Ahmadinejad and removed officials who supported engagement with the US. Eventually, Iranian Foreign Policy shifted towards emphasis on interpreting the international community’s engagement and for development of its strategy towards US. During 2004-05 presidential and parliamentary elections in Afghanistan, Taliban re-emerged as a resilient insurgent group. Until March 2009, dialogue and reconciliation between Iran and Afghanistan became impossible. Iran realized through rising insurgency that domestic security of Iran and peace in Afghanistan could only be safeguarded if power is shared through political means rather than military ones in all Afghan groups involved in the conflict.
Figure 5: Iranian Hardliner Conservative President Ahmadinejad (2005 – 2013).
Iran urged for ‘look East’ policy along with isolationism (due to sanctions imposed by West) during President Ahmadinejad’s regime. Strong ties with China were also established during this tenure. Iran adopted policy for backing Karzai Administration, expanding bilateral relations and respect for the State’s sovereignty since 2002. Iran has also emphasized on NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan since 2007 and pressurized Afghanistan to solve its problems without external influence since 2009.
[1] Dobbins, J., ‘Negotiating with Iran’, Iran: Reality, Options and Consequences, Part 2, Negotiating with the Iranians: Missed Opportunities and Paths Forward, Hearing before the Subcommittee on National Security and Foreign Affairs of the Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, US House of Representatives, Nov 7, 2007 (US Government Printing Office: Washington, DC, 2009); p. 12.
Iran also worked on its Nuclear Program side by side for which it faced many sanctions; which ultimately resulted into stagnation of Iranian Foreign Policy. As President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad emphasized that it is for civilian energy production, State’s own security and industrial development purposes. Defensive realism states that “thenation-states try to avoid power gaps with other states however, it is unnecessary that they will maximize their power for their own sake”. This justifies the development of Iran’s nuclear program.
Figure 6: Map showing the nuclear facilities and sites in Iran.
The time period 2002-07 was considered “golden era” by some Iranian officials due to huge financial support towards Afghanistan. Contrarily, during 2007-13, aid from Iran was comparatively lower, mainly focused existing products’ finalization. This showed political context’s influence along with escalated critical foreign efforts of Iranian Government in Afghanistan as relations between Iran and US got frustrated and further sanctions on Iran due to its nuclear program. Due to these challenges, Iran adopted various strategies like; it adopted pragmatic approach for consolidation of strategic influence and escalating its trade with Afghanistan and formation of buffer zone for safeguard of security in future. It supported “Istanbul Process” in 2011, for escalation of political dialogue and cooperation among the Asian states present at Asia’s heart; and UN conferences on Afghanistan.
Diverse trade agreements were signed between Iran and Afghanistan which escalated economic exchange and trade. Trade exports of Iran escalated from $150 million (in 2002) to $2 billion (at the end of 2012) to Afghanistan.[1] From mid-2007, Iran pressurized Afghanistan to cope all insecurity matters and International Sailing Federation’s (ISAF) withdrawal and suggested that US could use its new bases for launching military strikes at Iran.[2]
[2] Borger, J., ‘Iran offers to help US rebuild Afghanistan’, The Guardian, Mar 31, 2009; Khazaee, M., Permanent Representative of Iran, ‘On the situation in Afghanistan’, Statement before the UN Security Council, Oct 15, 2007; and Khazaee, M., Permanent Representative of Iran, ‘On the situation in Afghanistan’, Statement before the UN Security Council, July 9, 2008.
During March 2011, Iran declared shift in its foreign policy by emphasizing that it supports the High Peace Council (HPC) and its dialogue with Taliban. Iran also offered for hosting meeting of mediation in Tehran between Afghan groups. In September 2011, Iran entered in peace talks like; in Tehran, it invited the HPC leadership and two members of Quetta Shura (the Taliban’s leadership council) in Islamic Awakening Conference. In June 2013, Taliban declared the travelling of their two delegations to Tehran from their office in Doha, for negotiations with Iranian officials.[1]
[1] Khabare, T. ‘Taliban officials visit Iran’, Tolo news, June 3, 2013; and Khan, T., ‘Neighborhood watch: Taliban defy Afghan govt, successfully conclude Iran visit’, Express Tribune (Karachi), June 7, 2013.
From 1997 to mid-2013, Iran’s key policy was to become a regional player. Iran perceived its engagement in Afghanistan as “opportunity towards increasing its regional role geared to promote national interests”.[1]The Iran’s new policy on reconciliation appeared when provision of Iranian weapons to Afghan insurgents was reported by ISAF.
[1] Barzegar, K., ‘Role at odds: the roots of increased Iran–U.S. tension in the post-9/11 Middle East’, Iranian Review of Foreign Affairs, vol. 1, no. 3 (2010), pp. 97.
When Rouhani was elected as President of Iran in 2013, he emphasized on policies of economic development and moderation. On his first day in office, strategic cooperation agreement on intelligence, economic and security projects was signed by him with Afghanistan. This indicated Iran’s initiative for improvement of ties with East and to strengthen the security measures for balancing the US influence in Afghanistan in post-2014 period.[1]
[1] ‘The strategic agreement between Afghanistan and Iran, and its details’ (in Dari), Ufuq Magazine, Aug 6, 2013; and Ruttig, T. ‘Can Kabul carry two melons in one hand? Afghanistan and Iran sign strategic cooperation document’, Afghanistan Analysts Network, Aug 6, 2013.
THE CHALLENGES & OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE
CONTEMPORARY IRANIAN FOREIGN POLICY TOWARDS AFGHANISTAN
[1] Borger, J., ‘Iran offers to help US rebuild Afghanistan’, The Guardian, Mar 31, 2009; Khazaee, M., Permanent Representative of Iran, ‘On the situation in Afghanistan’, Statement before the UN Security Council, Oct 15, 2007; and Khazaee, M., Permanent Representative of Iran, ‘On the situation in Afghanistan’, Statement before the UN Security Council, July 9, 2008.
[1] Khabare, T. ‘Taliban officials visit Iran’, Tolo news, June 3, 2013; and Khan, T., ‘Neighborhood watch: Taliban defy Afghan govt, successfully conclude Iran visit’, Express Tribune (Karachi), June 7, 2013.
[1] Barzegar, K., ‘Role at odds: the roots of increased Iran–U.S. tension in the post-9/11 Middle East’, Iranian Review of Foreign Affairs, vol. 1, no. 3 (2010), pp. 97. [1] ‘The strategic agreement between Afghanistan and Iran, and its details’ (in Dari), Ufuq Magazine, Aug 6, 2013; and Ruttig, T. ‘Can Kabul carry two melons in one hand? Afghanistan and Iran sign strategic cooperation document’, Afghanistan Analysts Network, Aug 6, 2013.
Immigration of Afghan refugees: This influences the Iranian security to a greater extent. Since 2001, US invasion of Afghanistan, this issue resulted into obstruction of relations between both states. After return of Taliban in power in August 2021, Afghan refugees doubled according to foreign ministry of Iran, reached near 5 million. As it has experienced economic deterioration due to sanctions, the immigration further placed huge burden on Iran’s economy. In October 2021, in Mashhad, an Afghan refugee was accused of killing two Iranian clerics. This incident along with a video showing humiliation of Afghan refugees such as they were insulted, beaten, falsely accused and asserted and being pressurized to live in the squalid camps; where they were maltreated, further intensified the scenario. Iran insisted that all these wants to destroy the diplomatic relations between both states. Despite this, Afghanistan emphasized Iran on assurance of security services and protection to refugees. In vengeance, protestors throw stones at Iranian consulate, devastated surveillance cameras and set main gate to fire; in Herat.
Water crisis between Iran and Afghanistan: This crisis also influences security ties between both states, ultimately affecting Iranian Policy. Since early 1960s, water right’s crisis also exists between Iran and Afghanistan.[1]Regional security and political implications also existed due to problem of equitable distribution and rights of water along the Harirud River (in Khorasan) and Helmand River (in Sistan Baluchistan). The non-binding agreement of 1973 only applies to Harirud River and emphasizes that Iran will be provided with significant water discharge by Afghanistan.
[1] Haji-Yousefi, A. M., ‘Iran’s foreign policy in Afghanistan: the current situation and future prospects’, Paper presented at the Canadian Political Science Association Annual Conference, Waterloo, Ontario, 16–18 May 2011, p. 3.
For its effectiveness, both states entered into an agreement for establishment of measurement devices on river. The head of the Helmand Water Commissary advocated that effective river water management and raised knowledge for effective distribution of water in both states was the goal of the agreement.
According to Vatan-e Emrooz, “About 90% of the country’s wetlands are drying up and the collapse of these wetlands will surely lead to climate change, economic insecurity and food insecurity”. Rainfall in Iran’s southern Sistan and Baluchistan was 82 % (lower than the average long-term rainfall), according to the Iranian Meteorological Organization. Meanwhile, Hormozgan province, which borders the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, has received 86% less rainfall than region’s normal pattern of rainfall.[1] Water shortages have resulted in conflicts between the natives and security authorities in various sections of the State. The ability of Iran to deal with the water crisis is inextricably connected to challenges of its foreign policy.
[1] Galestan, M. “The Cause of Iran’s Worsening Water Crisis”, June 3, 2021.
Drug trafficking: This evil across the border between both states is another major challenge to Iran’s security ties with Afghanistan. Iran spends millions of dollars on safeguarding its border against this evil annually. In post-revolutionary period, consumption of opiates by Iranians escalated despite of penalties and punishments by governments. During the same period, Afghanistan became one of the world’s largest opium producer in the region. Throughout 1990s, Afghan output of poppy escalated, also utilization of heroin in Iran also boosted. In 2000, the ban of poppy’s cultivation by Taliban resulted into the shortages of opium, which driven the drug
[1] Galestan, M. “The Cause of Iran’s Worsening Water Crisis”, June 3, 2021.
consumption pattern in Iran even faster towards heroin addiction. According to the Survey of Afghan Annual Opium Poppy in 2016, the harvest was the highest of all the times, with total cultivation up to 59% and production up to 49% over the previous year. According to Afghan Survey of 2007, the output increased by 34% since 2006.[1] The graph given below shows the increase in Afghanistan’s share of the opium poppy farming.
Figure 8: UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), World Drug Report 2007, figure 15. pp. 41.
The drug crisis in Iran has also contributed to an increase in severe crimes and corruption. Kidnapping and murder have grown in the province of Khorasan. Approximately 3,500 law enforcements and security personnel of Iran have killed heavily armed drug traffickers in fights along the Eastern border of Iran over past the last two decades. In 2005, the International Narcotics Control Board credited Iran with significant escalation in opiates seizures, with a total of 350 tones. Iran has serious concerns regarding this issue and wants Taliban to take serious measures and enforce certain rules and laws in order to cope with this evil.
The militia leaders supported by Iran visualize the victory of Taliban as a model and an opportunity for their own interests. The formal recognition of government of Taliban by Iranian government connected to its implementation of an inclusive government. Also, another major challenge is Haqqani Network’s hardline approach. It is a branch of Taliban having relations to many Sunni-
extremist groups like Al-Qaeda. Its leader is Interior Minister in government of Afghanistan. And if he remained persistent to achieve higher level in government, relations between Iran and Afghanistan will be titled by him. If relations between both states will be deteriorated, then the Jihadist groups would join Taliban against Iran.[1] Iran is cautious about not to replicate the incident of Mazar-i-Sharif that took place in 1998. Iran is actually working on three main policies; support for Taliban Regime, waging proxy wars (to prevent the full control of Taliban over Afghanistan), and direct intervention (in order to establish its influence by preventing the victory of Taliban).
[1] Elias, F. “The Rise of the Taliban and Iran’s Critical Problem in Afghanistan”, Oct 28, 2022.
According to the Realism Theory, there is anarchy in international system, where powers feel threatened by each other’s increasing influence and want to be the dominant player, which makes them feel secure in that way. This scenario ultimately leads to war and conflicts. From this perspective, Iran feels threatened by any state that is developing and going against its interests. The existence of multiple powers means that they will try to compete and eliminate one another. Iran don’t want to lose regional supremacy against its rivals Saudi Arabia in the region so US always marks its presence in the Middle East.
Mearsheimer suggests in the offensive realism that “states seek to survive under anarchy by maximizing their power”, which results in the institutions being unable to influence this kind of behavior. Contrarily, the institutionalists argue that institutions are capable of bringing peace, although it will weaken their power. If the prime objective of foreign policy of Iran is to strengthen its position as a single regional dominant player and power.[1] If the prime objective of foreign policy of Iran is to strengthen its position as a single regional dominant player and power and does not choose to respect the freedom and interests of other states, then it will be perceived as a threat for states that don’t fulfil its interests. But Iran should have to look its internal problems rather than threatening and interfering in the other states.
[1] Mearsheimer, John J. 1995. A Realist Reply. International Security, Vol. 20 No. 1, pp. 82-93.
The presence of Iran’s persistent enemy; US in the region: It is one of the major security threats and challenges posed to Iranian Foreign Policy towards Afghanistan. Iran perceives the return of Taliban in Afghanistan in August 2021, as the major failure of US in the region. The presence of the US in the region, according to President Ebrahim Raisi, promotes insecurity and Washington’s withdrawal from Afghanistan would provide an opportunity for “peace and security”.
“The nature of our connections with governments relies on the nature of their relations with US”,
Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei remarked in his speech. He also took advantage of the chance to criticize the US for acting very brazenly in Afghanistan. According to Tehran’s narrative, the US would suffer future failures in the Middle Eastern region as a result of its defeat in Afghanistan. Due to zero-sum logic of Taliban, Iran’s offensive realist regional strategy would be encouraged, which would further aggravate troubles.
Iran wants to fully utilize the opportunity (the defeat of US in the region and the rise of Taliban) for fulfilling its interests and goals. Iran will gain the economic security from Taliban’s regime.
[1] Elias, F. “The Rise of the Taliban and Iran’s Critical Problem in Afghanistan”, Oct 28, 2022. [1] Mearsheimer, John J. 1995. A Realist Reply. International Security, Vol. 20 No. 1, pp. 82-93.
Kayhan (an ultraconservative) referred Afghanistan under Taliban as a member of “Axis of Resistance”, highlighting the importance of Iranian exports of fuel to country (which has been continued since the Taliban’s takeover) and have claimed that they will bolster Iran’s “Resistance Economy”. “The Taliban have decreased import duties by one-eighth, making it considerably easier and faster for traders to clear their goods”, reported by Mohammad Mehdi Javanmard Qassab, Iran’s commercial adviser in Afghanistan. Also, the vice-President of Joint Chamber of Commerce Iran-Afghanistan “Aladdin Mir Muhammad Sadeghi” said that, “the bilateral trade between both states can reach up to $3 billion if it is assured that the promises would be kept that are made to Taliban”.[1]
[1]Ali Fathollah-Nejad, Azizi, H. “Iran and the Taliban after the US fiasco in Afghanistan”, Sep 22, 2021.
CONCLUSION
Therefore, the hypothesis that the major challenge for Iranian Foreign Policy towards Afghanistan is “Security Issues” that will prove as an obstacle in diplomatic relations between both states as well as blessing in disguise for Iran. Iranian Foreign Policy in successive regimes in post-revolutionary era towards Afghanistan faced many challenges and got many opportunities for its national interests and benefits. The pragmatic approach of Iranian Foreign Policy has navigated the diverse strategic inconveniences that are necessitated by the Taliban. The post-invasion condition (which brought the movement together with Iran) emphasizes that Iran can successfully built further diplomatic ties in various prospects by developing mutual interests like escalated trade, curbing drug and human trafficking across the border and fighting against regional troubles.
[1]Ali Fathollah-Nejad, Azizi, H. “Iran and the Taliban after the US fiasco in Afghanistan”, Sep 22, 2021.
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Katzman K. Afghanistan: Current Issues and US Policy, Congressional Research Service (CRS) Report for Congress
Trade policies wield significant influence over poverty levels globally. The intricate relationship involves the impact of economic, social, and political factors. One primary mechanism is the effect on income distribution, where globalization and liberalized trade can exacerbate inequality within countries, widening the wealth gap and hindering opportunities for lower-income groups. Employment dynamics are also influenced, with expanded trade creating jobs in certain sectors but potentially displacing workers in others, particularly affecting vulnerable populations in developing nations.
The global nature of trade policies magnifies their impact, as decisions by major economic players reverberate across the world. The asymmetry in negotiating power can lead to unfavorable terms for weaker participants, perpetuating or deepening poverty in less developed regions. Global supply chain dynamics and external events, such as financial crises or pandemics, further underline the interconnectedness of economies and their potential impact on poverty.
Trade policies intersect with social and environmental considerations, affecting vulnerable communities disproportionately. Environmental degradation, child labor, and inadequate labor standards can be exacerbated by insufficient regulatory frameworks within the context of global trade. In conclusion, a nuanced approach to trade policies is crucial, considering their intricate connections to poverty on a global scale. Sustainable and inclusive trade policies are essential for harnessing the benefits of globalization while mitigating its adverse effects on income distribution, employment, and social well-being.
The Trade Dilemma: Balancing Benefits and Challenges:
Trade has played a significant role in fostering economic development and reducing poverty. Between 1990 and 2017, developing nations increased their global export share from 16 percent to 30 percent, coinciding with a decline in the global poverty rate from 36 percent to 9 percent. While the benefits of trade have not been uniform across all countries, the overall impact has been remarkable, lifting approximately 1 billion people out of poverty in recent decades.
Trade offers numerous advantages, including accelerated productivity growth, particularly for sectors and nations involved in global value chains (GVCs). These chains enable developing countries to specialize in producing specific components, gaining access to foreign technology, expertise, and investment. Additionally, trade facilitates the dissemination of technologies that address environmental concerns, such as solar panels, wind turbines, or drought-resistant seeds. Although some sectors and workers may face increased competition, consumers benefit from a greater variety of goods and services at lower prices.
Despite these advantages, globalization faces criticism for its perceived role in the loss of manufacturing jobs in advanced economies, environmental harm, and disruptions to essential supplies like vaccines. Geopolitical tensions have led major players to erect trade barriers, subsidize domestic production of critical goods, and engage in restrictive practices during crises, as seen in disruptions to food supplies in 2022.
Trade disputes and restrictions have weakened the rules-based global trading regime, notably the World Trade Organization. Smaller developing economies, dependent on exports, require fair competition to thrive and lack the fiscal resources to counter protectionist measures by advanced countries. The World Bank warns that increased trade tensions could push millions into poverty by 2030, rivaling the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.
To address these challenges, both developing and advanced economies can focus on deeper regional trade agreements, enhance border procedures and infrastructure to reduce the cost of moving goods and embrace policies that leverage the growth of trade in digital services. The global trade system should balance concerns about national security and access to essential goods without compromising development. It should distinguish between subsidies that contribute to public goods and those distorting trade, ensure widespread availability of subsidized technologies, and discourage export restrictions during crises while encouraging the permanent reduction or elimination of import tariffs.
Global Integration: Developing Nations in the Era of Value Chains:
Up until the late 1970s and early 1980s, most developing countries experienced a surplus in agricultural exports over imports. However, economic shocks in the early 1980s prompted a move towards agricultural trade liberalization and a shift away from urban bias. The Uruguay Round in the 1990s marked a significant reduction in agricultural tariffs, decreasing from 30 percent to 18 percent. Developing nations embraced liberalizing measures, eliminating import restrictions, devalued exchange rates, and export taxes.
Over the past three decades, developing countries have substantially reduced distortions to agricultural incentives, especially compared to wealthier economies. Between 1980–84 and 2000–04, agriculture-based countries further lowered protection of agricultural imports and reduced taxation of exports. Despite these changes, the liberalization of agricultural trade led to a decline in food and agricultural exports from developing countries in the early 1990s due to factors such as global food safety standards, stagnant agricultural productivity, and rising compliance costs.
While liberalization exposed consumers and producers to greater price volatility, richer economies contributed to commodity price instability through increased protectionism and subsidies. Speculative capital inflows into agricultural commodity markets further exacerbated the situation. The shift in global trade in manufactured goods has also transformed middle- and low-income countries, opening protected domestic markets, encouraging exports, attracting foreign direct investment (FDI), and promoting innovation.
Developing countries have increasingly participated in global value chains, with their share in merchandise exports rising from 20 percent in 1990 to over 40 percent in 2012. The integration of global investment and trade into international production networks has challenged state regulation of multinational employers. Some developing nations have experienced “premature deindustrialization,” becoming service economies without full industrialization, while others, particularly in Asia, have maintained industrial growth through favorable financial environments.
Trade for Poverty Eradication in Developing Countries:
International trade is a pivotal tool for developing nations in their pursuit of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) by 2015. Acknowledging trade’s potential to spur economic progress and alleviate poverty, countries have increasingly opened up to global markets. However, the relationship between trade and growth is nuanced, and caution is advised to navigate potential short-term challenges. The international community, recognizing the importance of trade for development, has launched initiatives such as Aid for Trade and the WTO Doha Round to ensure that the benefits of trade are widespread.
The impact of trade on poverty reduction is evident, with developing countries experiencing robust growth in the last decade, leading to increased employment and investment levels. Trade liberalization has played a crucial role in reducing global tariffs, and fostering export revenues. Despite progress, challenges persist, including disproportionately high tariffs on products of export interest to developing countries. Successful cases, such as Mauritius, Rwanda, and Kenya, exemplify how tailored trade policies can contribute to achieving the MDGs.
While trade remains a potent instrument for economic growth, caution is advised. The complex relationship between trade openness and growth depends on various factors, including macroeconomic stability and infrastructure. Trade liberalization alone cannot guarantee MDG achievement; it requires comprehensive reforms and international support to address potential challenges. Developing countries should enhance their supply capacity before fully engaging in global competition, with initiatives like Aid for Trade facilitating infrastructure and productive capacity investments.
Addressing unemployment concerns during market liberalization is crucial. Developing social safety nets, education, and training policies are essential to reallocate workers to growing sectors and mitigate short-term challenges. The international community’s role is crucial in assisting developing countries in coping with adjustment costs, emphasizing the integration of all development policies into each country’s National Development Strategy.
In the quest for poverty eradication, trade reform is viewed not as charity but as a means to equip developing countries with essential tools to achieve the MDGs. Trade, when coupled with comprehensive and tailored reforms, emerges as a vital instrument for accelerating economic growth and reducing poverty, requiring continued global cooperation and support.
Positive Impacts:
Trade-induced fluctuations in prices may arise directly from shifts in supply or demand, or indirectly through variations in the exchange rate triggered by changes in the terms of trade. The potential for trade to enhance real incomes and alleviate absolute poverty lies in its capacity to lower prices of imports and import substitutes that are crucial for the impoverished or to elevate prices of exports or import complements produced by individuals in poverty.
The reduction of relative poverty can also occur if lower-priced imports or higher-priced exports disproportionately involve the poor. Nevertheless, the predominant impact of trade on poverty often stems from its role in fostering economic growth. This indirect effect can be substantial, often overshadowing more direct poverty reduction mechanisms. Efficiency gains resulting from trade may bolster employment and investment opportunities, including investments in human capital, or enhance the availability of complementary factors of production that augment the productivity of the poor. The extent to which the poor can access these potential benefits is a pivotal factor in determining the poverty reduction effect.
While the general trend of trade liberalization and expansion benefits the poor, it is imperative to acknowledge that not all trade-related effects on poverty are uniformly positive. Changes in trade flows or patterns typically reshape the landscape of risks and uncertainties faced by the poor. Shifts in trade flows or patterns have the potential to disrupt social stability, particularly affecting those on the fringes of society. Alterations in terms of trade or exchange rates, especially those impacting tradable sectors that involve substantial numbers of the poor or near poor, such as small-scale agriculture, can yield considerable impacts, whether positive or negative, on poverty incidence.
Trade-related environmental changes also carry the risk of adversely affecting the poor. The potential costs of adjustment may be considerable for certain individuals, underscoring the need for complementary policies designed to facilitate a smoother transition. (Brooks, 2003)
Negative Impacts:
Despite its acknowledged advantages, trade policies are encountering criticism as evidenced by a 2023 report from the World Bank. Detractors attribute it to the erosion of manufacturing jobs in advanced economies, environmental degradation, and disruptions in the supply chain of crucial goods such as vaccines. These apprehensions, coupled with geopolitical tensions, have induced significant players to erect trade and investment barriers while subsidizing domestic production of items deemed essential and strategically important. A notable example from 2022 illustrates this trend, where several countries responded to disruptions in food supplies from Ukraine by imposing restrictions on the export of wheat, corn, and other staples. This reciprocal cycle had the adverse effect of escalating prices, momentarily posing a threat to global food security.
The ramifications of trade disputes and restrictions extend to the destabilization of the rules-based global trading system, with the World Trade Organization at its core. The predicament is particularly challenging for smaller developing economies, which lack self-sufficiency and rely on exports for imports. These nations are dependent on fair competition, a circumstance jeopardized by trade-distorting subsidies and protectionist measures. Moreover, the imperative of attracting investment underscores the critical need for a dependable and coherent system of global trade rules, an assurance many developing countries find elusive. The fiscal constraints faced by these nations compound the challenges, making it difficult to counteract the steps taken by advanced economies to subsidize domestic production.
According to the World Bank’s projections, an erosion of investor confidence stemming from heightened trade tensions among major economies could result in the impoverishment of 30-50 million people by 2030. This estimate hinges on the severity of protectionist policies implemented by both advanced and developing nations. A comparative reference to the 70 million individuals pushed into poverty in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic underscores the potential gravity of the negative consequences associated with escalating trade tensions.
Policy Recommendations:
Prioritize Inclusive Development:
Trade policies must be designed with a focus on inclusive development, ensuring that the benefits of globalization are distributed equitably across different segments of society. It must consider the specific vulnerabilities and needs of marginalized groups, including small-scale farmers and workers in vulnerable sectors, when formulating trade agreements.
Sustainable Practices:
Environmental sustainability must be integrated into trade policies to mitigate the negative impact on vulnerable communities and ecosystems. Polices must encourage adherence to international environmental and labor standards to prevent exploitation and degradation.
Enhance Social Safety Nets:
Robust social safety nets must be implemented to protect communities adversely affected by trade policies, providing support for retraining, relocation, and economic diversification. Ensure that the most vulnerable populations have access to social welfare programs to offset any negative consequences of trade liberalization.
Include Stakeholder Participation:
Foster inclusive decision-making processes that involve various stakeholders, including civil society, labor unions, and marginalized communities, in the formulation of trade policies. Promote transparency and accountability in trade negotiations to build public trust and ensure fair representation.
These policy recommendations aim to strike a balance between harnessing the benefits of global trade and safeguarding the interests of vulnerable populations. By prioritizing inclusive development, sustainability, social protection, stakeholder participation, and fair trade agreements, policymakers can contribute to a more equitable and poverty-reducing global trade landscape.
Conclusion:
In conclusion, the intricate connections between trade policies and global poverty necessitate a balanced and thoughtful approach to policy formulation. The positive impacts of trade, such as enhanced real incomes and poverty alleviation through economic growth, are accompanied by potential negative consequences, including disruptions in vulnerable sectors and environmental degradation. The case studies of NAFTA’s impact on Mexico and Ethiopia’s agricultural export-led growth highlight the diverse outcomes resulting from trade policies. Moving forward, policymakers are urged to prioritize inclusive development, integrate sustainable practices, enhance social safety nets, and include stakeholders in decision-making processes. Fair and inclusive trade agreements that consider the developmental needs of all nations are essential for fostering a more equitable and poverty-reducing global trade landscape.
In The Post-American World, Fareed Zakaria offers a unique perspective on the changing global landscape in terms of history, economics, and society. Zakaria argues that the United States, once an unrivalled superpower, must now face the reality of a “third great power shift” in the modern era. This shift refers to the rise of countries such as China, India, Brazil, and Russia, which have experienced significant economic growth and are challenging American dominance. According to Zakaria, the United States has witnessed a relative decline in its unilateral power and influence as these non-Western countries continue to thrive. In order to adapt to the transformations occurring in rapidly developing nations like China, the United States must adjust its practices and strategies. This is essential for the U.S. to navigate the ever-changing twenty-first-century world.
In the opening chapter, titled “Rise of the Rest,” Zakaria lays the foundation for his argument about the shifting global order. He presents his central thesis, which asserts that the world is currently undergoing a historic power shift away from American dominance towards a “post-American” era characterized by the rise of other nations. To support his thesis, Zakaria draws parallels between the current power shift and two significant transitions in history. The first is the rise of the West, where European countries gradually surpassed older powers like China and the Ottoman Empire, establishing Western dominance for centuries. The second is the American Century, where the United States emerged as the undisputed superpower after World War II due to its economic and military strength.
Zakaria argues that the current “rise of the rest” mirrors these past shifts, suggesting that it is a natural progression in global dynamics. He further emphasizes the emergence of new powers by highlighting specific examples of countries experiencing exceptional growth. Overall, “Post-American World” challenges the traditional notion of American dominance and offers a compelling perspective on the changing global landscape. Zakaria’s analysis prompts readers to consider the implications of this power shift and the need for the United States to adapt to a rapidly evolving world.
China’s rapid economic growth, surpassing Japan to become the world’s second largest economy, along with its increasing military and political influence, serves as a prime example of the “rise of the rest.” Similarly, India, with its vast demographics and growing economic strength, is also a significant player in this global shift. Brazil, on the other hand, stands out for its successful transition to a stable democracy and strong economic performance, positioning itself as a major force in the emerging multipolar world. It is important to note that these examples are just a few among many other countries worldwide that are contributing to the diffusion of power.
As these countries rise, the dominance of the United States diminishes, and the global economic landscape undergoes a transformation. The US no longer solely dominates the market, as other countries gain significant market share and generate new wealth. Emerging powers are asserting their voices on the international stage, challenging American leadership in global institutions and alliances. While the US still maintains its military superiority, other nations are rapidly modernizing their forces, potentially leading to a less predictable multipolar military landscape.
Zakaria emphasizes that the “rise of the rest” does not necessarily indicate the downfall of the US. However, it does require the country to adapt to a new reality where it can no longer dictate the global agenda. This adaptation, according to Zakaria, entails embracing cooperation with other nations and building stronger international institutions to navigate the complexities of a multipolar world. The author presents a compelling argument regarding the rise and fall of poverty, using examples and data from various countries such as China, Turkey, India, Brazil, Russia, Indonesia, Kenya, and South Africa. These nations are experiencing significant global growth, marking a shift towards a more inclusive international system. The author also highlights the emergence of the “Rise of the Rest” and no state actors, which has led to the empowerment of groups and individuals, challenging traditional hierarchies and centralized control.
Government functions are now being shared with international bodies like the WTO and the EU, while NGOs are Proliferating worldwide. Fareed Zakaria asserts that power is transitioning away from nation states, rendering traditional applications of national power, both economic and military, less effective. In the past, we witnessed a multipolar order dominated by European governments, followed by a bipolar duopoly during the Cold War, and eventually a unipolar world under American dominance since 1991. However, the distribution of power is now shifting away from American dominance in all other dimensions, while still maintaining a single superpower status at the politico-military level. The author emphasizes that this shift does not signify an anti-American sentiment, but rather a transition into a post-American world.
He then asserts that despite the turmoil in global politics, the global economy continues to advance. Historically, economies have experienced their highest growth during or immediately after wars, as seen in examples such as the Cold War, Israeli conflicts, and the Iraq War. He goes on to discuss the concept of “The problems of plenty,” where resource rich countries thrive while others are still developing. These countries are seen as nonmarket parasites in a market-driven world and pose political challenges to the United States and the Western idea of international order. Iran, Venezuela, and Russia are cited as examples.
According to him, some countries act more responsibly, aligning with American interests, such as Canada, the Persian Gulf countries, Dubai, and Saudi Arabia. He further argues that as other countries become more active, the United States will inevitably have less room for maneuver. To deter rogue actions, the US will need to form broad and lasting coalitions, allowing other countries to have a stake in the new world order. In today’s international order, progress necessitates compromise. The author concludes by stating that finding a balance between accommodation and deterrence is the primary challenge for American foreign policy in the coming decades.
The emergence of the new order should not be interpreted as a reflection of American decline, but rather as a manifestation of the diverse array of forces that Washington can effectively navigate and even influence. While the rest of the world is experiencing significant economic growth, America will inevitably witness a relative decline. The increasing influence of non-governmental forces will impose significant constraints on Washington’s actions. For the past three centuries, the global order has been supported by the presence of dominant liberal powers initially Britain and subsequently America – who played pivotal roles in establishing and upholding an open world economy.
These powers safeguarded trade routes and sea lanes, acted as lenders of last resort, maintained reserve currencies, made foreign investments, and kept their own markets open. Moreover, they also tipped the military balance against major aggressors of their respective eras, ranging from Napoleon’s France to Germany and the Soviet Union. As the creators and sustainers of the existing order characterized by open trade and democratic governance, these powers have fostered a benign and advantageous environment for the vast majority of humanity. In the future, when historians reflect on this era, they may observe that during the initial decades of the 21st century, the United States accomplished its significant and momentous mission of globalizing the world.
However, they might also note that amidst this process, the United States overlooked its own globalization. The author, Fareed Zakaria, then proceeds to discuss a non-western world, one that is not dominated by the West. Consequently, we can summarize that Zakaria aims to shed light on the shifting global dominance from the United States to emerging economies such as China, India, Brazil, South Africa, and others. In essence, Zakaria’s writing is both intelligent and incisive, yet easily comprehensible.
“The Post-American World” holds particular relevance in today’s geopolitical and economic landscape. The book effectively advocates for a harmonious world with multiple centers of economic activity under the guidance of the United States. However, it falls short in addressing the numerous complexities that the United States currently confronts as a global player. Nonetheless, the book is a captivating read for those seeking a straightforward yet captivating exploration of the intricacies of a globalized world.
Much like the physical world, there is a virtual/digital world which is also characterized by anarchy. Challenges and threats emanating from the cyber world are as serious and consequential as those of the “real” world of traditional security. Today, the realm of world security is not only about “bullet vs. bullet,” it is also about “click vs. bullet.” The internet has changed the way we share information, interact, and develop on a global scale. It has had a significant impact, bringing about previously unheard-of breakthroughs in connectedness, equality, and human prosperity. But in addition to these astounding developments, the digital world often portrays more somber truths. It has developed into a haven for disinformation, cyber threats, data theft, and digital authoritarianism that jeopardizes peace and stability.
In this age of lightning-fast technical development, everyone involved in the problem-solving process needs to share some of the blame. The digital ecosystem, which once offered almost endless possibilities, now necessitates group action to reduce the risks that come with it. It is critical to recognize the interdependence of people and technology and the significant influence they have on one another as we negotiate this challenging landscape. The need to counterbalance accountability in the digital domain is central to this subject matter. This means that the dynamics of the digital ecosystem will fundamentally change such that defenders will now have the upper hand against harmful actors. To strengthen cybersecurity defenses, improve resilience, and prevent sensitive data from being misused, coordinated actions are needed.
The ongoing and intense hegemonic battle between the United States and China can be explained by the conflict over big data hegemony. Thus, gaining a competitive edge in AI technology may come from acquiring more data through connections with more governments. To dominate AI technology, the United States and China plan to create their own exclusive network platform, or value bloc. As such, friendly nations like the United States and China may be compelled to adopt a binary framework. Being on either side of the ROK, a state with such intimate ties to both blocs, is bound to incur significant losses.
The evolution of the ICT threat landscape, which is getting harder to navigate and more complicated, is worrying states more and more. By improving their precision, frequency, scale, and effect as well as making them more difficult to identify and neutralize, emerging technologies like artificial intelligence and quantum computing have the potential to either create entirely new dangers or greatly amplify those that already exist.
The complexity of digital supply chains, the digitalization of control systems in critical infrastructure, and the reliance on ICTs to deliver essential public services raise the danger of malevolent use of ICTs by extending the so-called attack surface. Ultimately, the threat landscape is primarily shaped by a complex web of entities within the ICT domain, including but not limited to States.
Given this, it is not unexpected that the topic of dangers has become increasingly prominent in multilateral talks about ICTs and global peace and security. More than 100 contributions on this topic were made by States and the multi-stakeholder community in the framework of the Open-Ended Working Group on security of and the use of information and communications technologies 2021-2025 (OEWG) in 2023 alone.
Complex interdependencies and emerging technologies are opening up new avenues for human development while also highlighting weaknesses in our digital infrastructure. Artificial intelligence and next-generation interconnectivity are becoming more widely used, which increases the complexity and risk of technological systems and increases the effect and destructiveness of cyberattacks
. Malicious actors are taking advantage of these weaknesses to carry out espionage, steal intellectual property, and launch destructive assaults on vital infrastructure. These actors include state-sponsored organizations and criminal syndicates. Autocratic nations such as China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and others are employing sophisticated cyber capabilities to aggressively pursue goals that jeopardize both international security and economic development. Cyber-enabled influence operations and ransomware attacks are examples of these threats that go beyond classic espionage and have caused significant disruptions to businesses and essential services globally.
To improve the resilience and defensibility of our digital ecosystem, stakeholders must work closely together over the long term as the digital landscape changes. The five pillars of this strategy—defending vital infrastructure, upending threat actors, influencing market forces, investing in resilience, and forming global partnerships—are meant to promote collaboration between the public and private sectors. The States must implement two significant changes to achieve these goals: redistributing the burden of cyberspace defense and realigning incentives to reward long-term investments.
The most capable players must assume increased responsibility for safeguarding the digital ecosystem, rather than placing the entire responsibility of managing cyber threats on end users. A secure and governed cyber world is, therefore, a key concern of the international community, including the south Asian nations. The task of maintaining cybersecurity in South Asia in the face of the complicated emerging cyber challenges, ranging from regulatory issues to lack regional cooperation, involves a mosaic of issues that needs both public and private participation.
Cyber threats must be addressed immediately in Pakistan due to the growing digitization of governmental services and key infrastructure. Pakistan must strike a balance between its ties with China and the United States while defending its interests as a country at a crossroads of geopolitical interests. To strengthen cybersecurity defenses and reduce the threats presented by hostile actors, cooperative actions with international partners are essential. Adopting the tenets of this plan would help Pakistan become more resilient to cyberattacks and maintain the stability of the global digital economy. For Pakistan’s progress and security in the digital age to continue, it is necessary that it actively participate in multilateral discussions and initiatives addressing ICT security.
The effects of 9/11 on various approaches to the study of international security draws attention to the scholarly discussion and traditional reaction to 9/11. 9/11 is considered the benchmark that changed the concept of International Security Studies after the cold war. Despite the effects of September 11 on the field of international security studies, the field has not fundamentally altered. The global war on terrorism has left a legacy of dividing opinions between western countries and the rest of the globe. It’s been called the “cold war’s” successor. The global war on terrorism has influenced domestic policy in the United States and Europe and has increased the body of literature on terrorism.
The global war on terrorism shifted the emphasis of warfare from relations between states to those between the state and non-state actors. It was a huge event that altered worldwide politics and had an effect on international Security Studies. The 9/11 attacks, according to traditionalists and realists, were an attempt to undermine American sovereignty. They viewed the interstate as a study in their agenda.
However, those outside a nation-state framework carried out the 9/11 attacks. The United States attempted to equate it with the state, although they were nonstate actors. After 9/11, neorealists rethought what it meant to trust in the rationality of the state, as Al-Qaeda, bin Laden, and Saddam Hussein all represented the logic of the terrorist group. “Bin-laden was a reasonable player, and the assault on the United States of America was part of the greater Middle Eastern program,” write Posen and Walt. The neoconservatives injected their views and principles as an instrument for international relations.
Before the global war on terror, interstate warfare, arms control, and nuclear deterrence were seen as the most important aspects of international security, but after 9/11, terrorism and non-state actors rose to the forefront of discussions. The importance of nuclear deterrence and US rivalry with Iran and Iraq have also changed in light of the global war on terror. Such would be the outcome if a non-state entity obtained nuclear weapons. Those who care only about tradition were alarmed by this.
The war on terror has altered conservative rhetoric, but many themes from before 9/11 have persisted. The continuation of the discussion on democratic peace theory, the theoretical study of the source of the conflict. Israel-Palestine conflict, and improvement over the literature on middle eastern security. The debate over great power politics that began with the conclusion of the cold war has persisted even during the global war on terrorism.
Discussion of the rising of China and the deterioration of relations between the United States and the People’s Republic of China because of the Taiwan problem. North Korea’s commitment to regional stability in East Asia and its pursuit of nuclear weapons capability has persisted in the wake of 9/11.
In the worldwide fight against terrorism, Europe stands with the United States and NATO, but in the invasion of Iraq, Europe (particularly Germany and France) stands firmly against the United States. As with China’s rise, neorealists see Europe as a counterweight to the United States. In the 1990s technology (BMD, and RMA) was the major driving factor for the traditionalist. Concern that a rogue state might acquire nuclear weapons and increase its military might as a result of the global war on terror has only increased.
Different theoretical traditions (including poststructuralism, postcolonialism, feminism, critical constructivism, and the Copenhagen school) see Security as a discourse with quite different implications. 9/11 is an act of terror, war rather than an accident is also a debate. When the United States and the United Kingdom invaded Iraq, they claimed the country had weapons of mass destruction; when they failed to uncover any such weapons, they shifted their rhetoric to focus on international human rights protection.
During the course of the global war on terror, a variety of think tanks were established to provide critical analysis of the policy, and international security studies began high-level policy involvement. Another reason we haven’t seen an intellectual history of ISS is because writing such a history requires a clear notion of what is and isn’t part of ISS, and the demarcation of ISS has been debated, particularly since the late 1980s.
Academic discussions in the 1980s and 1990s had a significant influence on ISS by bringing a wide variety of epistemological and ontological questions that had not previously been of great interest within the sub-field.
