Covid-19, and determinants of new World Order
The article deals with the historic background of the pandemic (Covid-19), referring to different eras in history being faced with contagious ancestral disease.
The next part explains different impacts that the world faced, setting the world on a global “reset”. It will discuss how the current pandemic (Covid-19) has affected the contemporary world order.
And what are the key factors that will determine the new world order, post-COVID-19? Further, it will also look at the uncertainties that lie ahead and how Pakistan can contribute to shaping the new world order.
As one commentator put it, “the coronavirus has turned the global market into the global hospital”. Its economic impact, however, could be even worse than that of the Great Depression. The IMF expected the global GDP to fall by 3% in 2020.
The WTO had warned that the volume of world trade could shrink by up to 32% while the ILO had indicated that 195 million jobs globally could be lost.
Pakistan was no exception from the havoc of covid-19 and has inevitably been impacted by both the global and domestic developments arising from the spread of the virus.
Some austerity measures to reduce economic loss and efforts to uplift exports through CPEC and small industry are helpful. Moreover, Government needs to overcome tax evasion so that the budget deficit may be reduced.
Similarly, political cohesiveness and effective fiscal policies to ensure stable economic growth during and after covid-19 are some other steps. All these initiatives will help Pakistan to drive its economy in the right direction.
The very recent Pandemic, before Covid-19, was Spanish flu which spread just after World War 1. Starting from Spain it went viral to the world causing more than seven million causalities.
Apart from this, looking at the history one can find pandemics like Black Death, Influenza, Smallpox, plague all these left deadliest impacts on the world.
The very first host of Covid-19 was the Chinese city Wuhan and the tradition of eating animal meat started after the revolution of Mao Zedong, a plan with the name “The great leap forward” introduced the centralization system of food supplies and distribution of food must be done from the center.
This method was vulnerable to far-off places and caused a famine in the villages. To protect their lives, people started eating animal meat and the idea of a wet market emerged.
Following will be the further impacts of Covid-19.
The world will witness a global economic decline. Exports and imports halted, few countries, including Pakistan, decided to lower the imports hence reducing the consumption at a global level.
This is the first economic downturn of this magnitude due to a non-economic cause and has resulted in the largest contraction of global output since the Great Depression of the 1930s.
Agriculture contributes 21% of our GDP and covers 45% of the labor force, these products are exported on a large scale, the pandemic has affected the exports and countries are unable to generate the required revenue out of the exports.
The already bad situation of health is worsened by now, there is no proper provision of testing kits, there was a time when seven lac people in Lahore were expected to be affected but due to the deficiency of testing kits, there was less reporting.
Non-availability of the separate hospital for Covid-19 patients, with the outbreak of covid-19 we saw the efficiency of China with the use of technology, she made a hospital for patients in very less time.
Again Pakistan is lagging in efficient and effective technical skills and poor management caused chaos in the hospitals. Many patients lost their lives due to the non-availability of ventilators.
The dilapidated education system of Pakistan has been fallen with the jerk of covid-19. The future of the students of primary class to University level has been halted.
The introduction of the online education system at once isn’t proved very effective rather it is stumbling the education system. Teachers and students are untrained and seem to be least interested to follow the online education system.
Apart from all these, fear and depression have taken place on large scale. People are locked in their houses having no interactive activities ultimately pushing them toward depression.
Political instability gives rise to populous leaders. With closed borders, grounded flights, a decline in immigration and a massive dip in global trade, the neoliberal model of economic globalization has suffered a severe reversal.
Trade wars had broken out before the pandemic itself but the pandemic highlighted the vulnerabilities of global supply chains, indirectly forcing nations to focus on self-sufficiency at the expense of global integration.
Key factors determining post-pandemic World Order:
Geo-economics: It looks at the effect of COVID-19 on globalization, supply chains, trade, and economic relations. If this reversal of globalization becomes permanent, it may create more inward-looking national economies—a sharp contrast from the interconnected world that was, until recently, the natural state of affairs. Further, a new form of ‘gated globalization’ could emerge, one that is less free and less open as the countries around the world become more cautious and selective while trading. This will impact not only advanced economies but emerging economies as well
Geopolitics: It examines both the theories and determinants that will contribute to shaping the new world order. The biggest perceptible challenge—exacerbated by the novel coronavirus—comes to the Western-led liberal order
The resurgence of aid diplomacy: It utilizes competitiveness in local industries to meet global demands for medical supplies, medical equipment, and essential goods. If this forges new partnerships between countries and organizations, it may reorient foreign policy imperatives towards nations that are ready and willing to meet these demands of Post-Pandemic World Order & Geopolitics.
Multilateralism: It delves into the possible demise of the post-World War II global order. A global disease outbreak indeed requires a coordinated global response
Geotechnology: It considers the use of advanced and emerging technologies to combat COVID-19, and how to increase their user interfaces with geopolitical processes.
The mortality rate and morbidity rate have reached unexpected levels. The clinicians are working to invent treatments and vaccines to prevent this infection.
The extreme situation is yet to occur. However, if we take one step toward self-isolation, it could save the entire community and the risk will decline immediately.
This is a situation where each individual has to take steps toward minimizing the risk by staying in the house and immobilizing themselves.
No doubt even after the discovery of the Covid-19 vaccine, airborne, contact transmission can only be disinfected if proper handwashing protocols are followed and each individual carries out precautionary measures to save other individuals from this debilitating virus.
read more: The ever-evolving security paradigm
The author is a student of International Relations at the National University of Modern Languages, Islamabad. She loves to explore contemporary international politics in which the world is witnessing constant turmoil and shifting powers.